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Back in 2018, a mere eight words to electrify a Labour conference demonstrating Labour was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not exactly stirring rhetoric, the phrase were greeted with wild cheering as delegates stood for an impromptu ovation.

As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding remain as an option". Context, however, is key.

In that deeply polarized period in 2018, departing from his agreed text like this was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in working-class seats above the pro-European instincts within Labour. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – if only for a while – into a political gambler who would stand up for the party's base against a leader he later succeeded.

The Evolution in Position & Closed Issues

In the years since, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the EU question had been settled by the previous year’s national vote. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” promises that ruled out re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Like his predecessor, his strategy has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in key seats, even if polling evidence indicates a significant number have died or changed their minds.

A Lid That Rattles on the EU

However, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a party leader. While Europe is no longer the boiling pot of British politics, the cap that has been kept firmly shut for five years is beginning to rattle once more.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified the rhetoric about the devastation caused by Brexit has inflicted on Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool to criticize the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and is still his only real achievement.

Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, reportedly has left Britain with a national economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the minor adjustments thus far implemented by the government. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset negotiated with the EU last summer offers economic benefits quantified in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure & Ambitious Proposals

The chancellor is one of those trying to overcome entrenched Home Office resistance to a broader scheme designed to boost growth program for young people by which youths can move between Britain and Europe for work or study.

The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly about the clear advantages of joining a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, last week supported an opposition proposal on joining one.

Although the Europe minister, who oversees UK-EU relations, now present at every cabinet meeting, insists the red lines remain unchanged, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. One idea would be to announce the start of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the following election platform, to be enacted only after Labour won a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Fundamental Doubts

However, Starmer has lately been damping it all down again cautioning that a return to a European customs area could undermine the trade pacts with the US, which he regards as key accomplishments of his premiership.

It is understood that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, stemming from three further factors.

1. Firstly, he thinks a customs pact has been made much harder because his ministers busily de-aligning from European rules across a range of sectors, like environmental standards.
2. Secondly, the prohibitive cost set for the UK to join the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse in talks has convinced UK negotiators that European nations are less interested in cutting special deals to the UK and are more focused on demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
3. Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is viewed by key advisors in Number 10 as a reason for Britain to maintain distance from the EU.

A Bizarre Document & Geopolitical Calculations

This strange and concerning document claims Europe faces “civilizational erasure” because of immigration. It includes a single mention of the UK, placed beside a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in our politics to encourage the rise of nationalist movements.

However, instead of concluding that this makes the US an undependable ally, the government reportedly fear that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by endangering fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Leadership Speculation & The Ghost from the Past

This situation brings us back to 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not an attempt to become leader but merely an effort to keep open the possibility of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. Indeed, back then, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he currently seems to reject.

Observers within the Prime Minister's office note that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would stand for the leadership, is among a group of senior ministers letting it be known they want to go further on Europe.

Staff for Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a future race for the top job, insist she won’t discuss her position on a customs union because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Obvious Danger and A Wise Memory

The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters are to be found.

It would be prudent for Starmer to recall the impact just a few words had on his career in 2018. Potential pathways for a big offer on EU relations which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open himself, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.