🔗 Share this article

Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions range over identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."

Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."